México — Carne Bovina
Análise de política comercial para exportações brasileiras de carne bovina para México.
Visão Geral do Mercado
Volume Comercial (2025)
$668,8M
Intervenções em Vigor
22
Fluxos de Comércio
Fonte: Trade Data Monitor (TDM)⚠ 2026 mostra dados parciais, ano ainda não concluído.
Intervenções de Política (GTA)
Fonte: Global Trade Alert (GTA)changed: On 5 January 2026, the Mexican government published a Decree establishing a temporary import tariff-rate quota for beef. Imports of up to 70'000 tonnes of subheadings 0201.10.01, 0201.20.91, 0201.30.01, 0202.10.01, 0202.20.91 and 0202.30.01 will be subject to duty-free treatment. This measure enters into force on 6 January 2026 and will remain valid until 31 December 2026. The measure covers fresh, chilled, or frozen beef products. Outside the in-quota volumes, imports will pay duties of 20% or 25%, depending on the product. Until recently, these imports were subject to duty-free treatment under the "basic basket" product regime. The duties of these products were reintroduced in December 2025 (see related state act).
static: On 28 July 2025, the Mexican Ministry of Finance (SHCP) announced a modification to the simplified customs regime for small imports through courier and parcel delivery services. The adjustment, published in the General Rules of Foreign Trade for 2025 (Reglas Generales de Comercio Exterior aplicables para el año 2025), increases the flat tax rate from 19% to 33.5% on shipments with a customs value below USD 117. The measure enters into force on 15 August 2025. For shipments valued over USD 117, the previous rate of 19% still applies, provided that the goods are covered by an air waybill or bill of lading, and are not subject to non-tariff regulations or restrictions. The flat rate is paid instead of import tariffs and other national taxes. Press coverage of the news highlights that the measure particularly affects Chinese e-commerce firms Temu and Shein. They also note the timing of the measure, namely, days before the US applies a 30% additional tariff on Mexico (see related state act).
changed: On 16 May 2022, the Mexican government published a Decree temporarily exempting several basic products from import duties, including foodstuff and hygiene items. The measure affects a total of 71 eight-digit tariff subheadings (69 six-digit subheadings). It enters into force on the day following its publication and will be valid for one year, namely until 16 May 2023, with the option of being extended later. According to the WTO Tariff Download Facility, the applicable ad-valorem duties of the products range between 9% and 45%. Notably, the following products are subject to specific duties: 0207.11, 0207.12, 0207.13, 0701.90, 1001.11, 1001.19, and 1001.91. The specific duties range from USD 90 to USD 1'512 per tonne, depending on the product. The Decree notes the measure aims "to counteract the effects on prices derived from the inflationary trend". Update On 19 May 2022, the government of Mexico published a Decree adding sorghum to the present list (see related state act). On 18 November 2022, the government of Mexico published a Decree replacing the present list and extending its application until 17 May 2023. The new Decree maintains all the tariff subheadings of the present list, recategorising the nomenclature of subheadings 0202.20.99, 0201.20.99, 1902.30.99, and 1604.20.03 as subheadings 0202.20.91, 0201.20.91, 1902.30.91, and 1604.20.91. On 6 January 2023, the government of Mexico published a Decree extending the present measure throughout 2023 and temporarily exempting the import duties for new products. The measure also removes subheadings 0304.87.01, 0105.11.99, 0104.20.99, 0104.10.99, 0103.92.99, and 0103.91.99. The import duties of these six products will return to their normal levels from 6 January 2023 onwards (see related state act). On 18 May 2023, the government of Mexico published a Decree removing wheat and wheat flour from the "basic basket" list temporarily exempted from import tariffs. Specifically, the affected tariff subheadings are 1001.11.01, 1001.19.99, 1001.91.99, 1001.99.99, and 1101.00.01. On 23 June 2023, the government of Mexico published a Decree establishing a new import tariff on white maiz (see related state act). On 27 December 2023, the government of Mexico published a Decree extending the present benefit until 31 December 2024. On 31 December 2024, the government of Mexico published a Decree extending the present benefit until 31 December 2025. The extension does not apply to papers under tariff subheadings 0904.21.02 and 0904.22.02 (see related state act).; changed: On 31 December 2025, the government of Mexico published a Decree extending the present benefit until 31 December 2026. The extension does not apply to imports under tariff subheadings 0102.29.99, 0201.10.01, 0201.20.91, 0201.30.01, 0202.10.01, 0202.20.91, 0202.30.01, 0203.11.01, 0203.12.01, 0203.19.99, 0203.21.01, 0203.22.01, 0203.29.99, 0401.10.02, 0401.20.02, 0401.40.02, 0401.50.02, 0402.10.01, 0402.10.99, 0402.21.01, 0402.21.99, 0402.29.99, 0713.33.99 and 1006.10.99.
Indicadores: Impacto no Fluxo Comercial
Fonte: Global Trade Alert (GTA) × Trade Data Monitor (TDM)Panorama: comércio mensal × intervenções
As barras marcam medidas de HS-6 específicos; a linha soma a família toda.
Como este indicador é calculado
Para cada intervenção GTA com data de implementação, comparamos a exportação brasileira do produto (HS-6) para este mercado antes e depois da medida. O baseline é a média mensal exportada nos 12 meses anteriores; os deltas comparam as médias mensais de +6, +12 e +24 meses ao baseline; a recuperação é o primeiro mês em que a média móvel de 3 meses volta ao baseline.
Limitações:
- Não é market share. Mede a exportação do próprio Brasil, não a perda para concorrentes, dado indisponível na base.
- O delta de 12 meses é o menos enviesado sazonalmente; 6 e 24 meses misturam composição sazonal.
- Descritivo, não causal: intervenções sobrepostas no mesmo produto/mercado fazem as janelas se cruzarem.
Mede a exportação do próprio Brasil pré/pós a medida, não market share nem perda para concorrentes. Indicador descritivo, não causal.
| Medida | Implementada | Baseline USD/mês? | Δ6m? | Δ12m | Δ24m | Recuperação? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RedMexico: Increase in flat tax rate for imports with low customs value ↗ · 020130 | 2025-08-15 | $10,3M | +11,7% | +3,1% | +3,1%* | ✓ 1 meses |
| RedMexico: Increase in flat tax rate for imports with low customs value ↗ · 020230 | 2025-08-15 | $32,4M | +14,4% | +13,1% | +13,1%* | ✓ 1 meses |
* janela de 24 meses ainda incompleta, dados parciais.
8 medida(s) adversa(s) sem histórico de comércio suficiente para medir impacto
- RedMexico: Increase in flat tax rate for imports with low customs value · 020610 · impl 2025-08-15 · baseline 0 meses
- RedMexico: Increase in flat tax rate for imports with low customs value · 020621 · impl 2025-08-15 · baseline 0 meses
- RedMexico: Increase in flat tax rate for imports with low customs value · 020629 · impl 2025-08-15 · baseline 0 meses
- RedMexico: Increase in flat tax rate for imports with low customs value · 160250 · impl 2025-08-15 · baseline 0 meses
- RedMexico: Increase in flat tax rate for imports with low customs value · 020110 · impl 2025-08-15 · baseline 0 meses
- RedMexico: Increase in flat tax rate for imports with low customs value · 020120 · impl 2025-08-15 · baseline 0 meses
- RedMexico: Increase in flat tax rate for imports with low customs value · 020210 · impl 2025-08-15 · baseline 0 meses
- RedMexico: Increase in flat tax rate for imports with low customs value · 020220 · impl 2025-08-15 · baseline 0 meses
Indicadores: Impacto no Preço
Fonte: Global Trade Alert (GTA) × CEPEA/ESALQPanorama: preço CEPEA × intervenções
○ anúncio · ● implementação. Preço nacional da família (média das séries CEPEA); a linha conecta observações reais, sem preenchimento.
Sem intervenções com data e histórico de preço suficiente para esta família.